EV Betting Picks

Our EV betting picks offer smart and mathematically viable wagering opportunities. If your goal is to generate long-term profits, positive expected value selections are a great start.

What are EV Betting Picks?

Positive EV picks are bets that offer higher payouts than they perhaps should. We choose +EV AI sports picks when a sportsbook’s odds are greater than the true probability of the outcome.

Ultimately, this gives you a chance to extract more value from a wager.

EV represents the true probability of an outcome based on the sportsbook’s line. We choose bets with +EV odds when the “real odds” (or prices based on actual probability minus the book’s betting vig) can get us a better price for a bet.

The only true way to make a consistent profit from gambling is to only wager on picks with positive betting value. So, you can achieve this by finding picks that offer a greater payout than they should.

How Positive EV Betting Odds Work

Sports betting odds with positive expected value (EV) can outweigh the true risk of a bet. This is because the oddsmakers have ostensibly undervalued the probability of an outcome occurring. In turn, this allows you to wager on that outcome with a better chance of generating a profit.

When you compare different Super Bowl prop picks, for example, you may come across different odds. Not all sportsbooks offer the same price across the board for moneyline bets either, meaning the +170 for the Kansas City Chiefs to win at six different bookies could be +210 at another site. In basic terms, the +210 odds are likelier to have +EV.

You won’t usually find concepts and words like EV and betting value anywhere near online sportsbooks. Unsurprisingly, sportsbooks and betting sites are businesses looking to churn as much profit as possible. This means there are no +EV odds betting sections, so there is some work required on your part to find them.

How to Calculate EV in Sports Betting

We do all the hard work with our subscription-based EV picks so you don’t have to. But our experts want to walk you through how to work out positive expected value for yourself.

You can use this formula to find out whether a bet offers positive or negative expected value. Or to get a better grasp of our rationale for selecting certain boxing picks, for example.

• EV = (Probability of Winning x Payout) – (Probability of Losing x Amount Bet)

With the formula to hand, you now want to convert betting odds to implied probability. When using US odds (also known as American/Vegas odds), there are two types –  positive and negative.

Use this formula for positive numbers:

• 100 / (Odds + 100)

For negative odds, it’s this:

• Odds / (Odds + 100)

Once you have your workings, you can estimate true probability. Compare sums to find if true probability exceeds the implied probability of the odds you want to bet on. If it does, then you’ve successfully identified positive expected value.

It is worth pointing out that there are calculators and other betting tools that can do this for you. Professional bettors, for example, may run software that automatically scans through thousands of betting lines across multiple sportsbooks. You can capitalise on arbitrage betting opportunities faster this way.

Examples of Expected Value in Betting

One of the best ways to demonstrate how EV sports betting works is to provide examples. There is a wide range of different sports and betting markets you can exploit for value.

Here are some examples of finding positive expected value in different sports.

Example of EV Picks for Football

Let’s imagine you are looking for positive EV sports betting opportunities in our NFL picks and find two.

First, you see the San Francisco 49ers at +190 to win the Super Bowl with an offshore betting site. Other sportsbooks offer within a range of +160 to +185 for the same bet.

The implied probability at +190 is worked out as follows:

• 100 / (190 + 100) = 34.48%

Let’s say you’ve done your homework and their true chance is closer to 40% (and you’ve also factored sportsbook vig in). If so, this may be classed as a +EV value bet.

You may also like Buffalo to beat Detroit at +120, as other books price them at +140 or shorter.

The implied probability at +120 can be calculated as follows.

• 120 / (120 + 100) = 54.55%

If your math says Buffalo hypothetically wins 60% of the time, that’s another positive expected value bet you’ve bagged.

NBA Value Bets Example

This time, you want to place any of our optimal EV picks for the NBA and see a good opportunity in the spread.

Sportsbook A offers the Los Angeles Lakers (+3.5) at +110, while other betting markets have the true line at +2.5.

The implied probability at +110 is:

• 100 / (110 + 100) = 47.62%

If you like Lakers to cover +3.5 at around a 52% to 56% rate, this is a +EV value bet.

MLB +EV Picks Example

This time, there’s some +EV betting value to be had in MLB predictions for the win. You’ve seen the New York Yankees at -130 to beat the Red Sox, despite most other sportsbooks pricing them between -150 and -160.

You’ll notice the implied probability formula for negative odds works differently, as we covered earlier:

• 130 / (130 + 100) = 56.52%

If we round up to the probability of the Yankees winning at least 60% of the time – and can hold this against the true odds – we’ve found a positive expected value bet.

Soccer Value Betting Picks Example

You can also find +EV odds in our soccer picks and other predictions for MLS matches. This time, we’ve found better odds for Inter Miami to beat LA Galaxy.

Sportsbook A offers +200 but their competitors have them at +175 or shorter.

So, we use the implied probability formula for positive odds to work this out:

• 100 / (200 + 100) = 33.33%

If your analysis points to Inter Miami having, say, a 38% chance to win, this is a positive expected value bet.

You’ve clearly found a value betting edge over the market.

Different Markets for EV Betting Picks

You can find market-based positive EV Betting odds for several different sports. But whether you’re betting on tennis predictions or basketball picks, most of the basic wagers are the same.

Here are just some of the numerous wagering types and betting markets you can consider for +EV.

• Moneyline Bets – A bet on a team or athlete to win an event.
• Prop Bets – These wager types cover things that happen in an event (but don’t necessarily decide it) as well as novelty markets.
• Over/Under Betting on Totals – Wager on whether the total points scored, for example, is over or under the line set by the oddsmaker.
• Parlay Bets – Combine several 2+ sports betting picks for different events into one bet where all must win for you to receive a payout.
• Same Game Parlays – Also known simply as “SGPs”, Same Game Parlays are created with 2+ EV picks in betting on the same event. All must win for you to be paid out.

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