Hedging Bets Explained

Sports betting is a game of risk and reward where nothing is guaranteed, however, hedging bets can help to minimise and potentially eliminate the chance of losses altogether when implemented correctly.

When you hedge a bet, you’re placing opposing wagers within the same market to cover different outcomes. Good hedging can turn potential losses into gains or, at least, soften the blow if bets are going against you.

In this guide, we’ll look into the mechanics of hedge betting and the strategies you can use to harness it properly.

What Does Hedging Your Bets Mean?

In stripped-back terms, hedging bets is a defensive strategy in sports betting where punters place an additional wager on online sportsbooks on the opposite outcome of an original bet.

The phrase “hedging your bet” is actually borrowed from investing, where diversification allows investors to spread risk. In betting, the tactic is the same and allows clued-in bettors to avoid putting all of their eggs in one basket.

The overall aim here is to minimize potential losses or to lock in guaranteed profits. Essentially, hedging is a means of insurance. If your initial pick falters, the hedge cushions the fall.

This isn’t really about chasing after every arbitrage betting opportunity, instead, you should look at hedging as a calculated protection, where a two-way market (like NFL point spreads or NBA moneyline picks) is covered in both directions.

Hedging can be an effective tool for both individual games and for futures tickets, as well as for middle betting on totals and spreads.

For example, say you’ve bet on a team to cover the spread bet in an NBA match, but midway through, things aren’t going to plan. The move then would be to hedge your bet by wagering on the opposing team to win, which applies a safety net by covering opposite outcomes.

Future tickets for competitions and tournaments can be hedged in the same way. Picks can be countered with opposing bets as season’s progress. Let’s get deeper into the nuts and bolts of hedging in the next section.

How Does Hedging My Bets Work?

The mechanism behind hedge betting is relatively straightforward, but requires timing and some number crunching to properly harness its power.

As any good betting guide will tell you, the key is sizing the hedge correctly. You can use a hedging bets calculator to help in that regard, ensuring that the payouts balance out as much as possible.

Let’s walk through a real-world example using college basketball picks from the NCAA Championship outright winner market:  Say, you’ve placed a futures bet of $100 on BYU at +1800 odds early in the season, eyeing a $1,900 total payout.

In this scenario, BYU storms to the championship final where the opponents are UConn (priced at -200 odds). To hedge your bets, you would wager $600 on UConn like this:

• If BYU wins: $1,900 payout minus $600 hedge stake = $1,300 profit (after your $100 original bet).
• If UConn wins: $600 × (1.5 payout at -200) = $900 total, minus $100 original = $800 profit.

The joy of hedging in this example means you’re up either way, no matter the outcome. Let’s take another look at how the same system might work with a hedge on the Super Bowl betting in the NFL.

Original wager: $100 bet on San Francisco 49ers at +3000 for a $3,100 payout ($3,000 profit)
Hedge: $1,000 on Baltimore Ravens ML -150 in the Super Bowl odds for a $1,667 payout ($667 profit)

With Hedge:
49ers win: $3,100 payout – $1,000 hedge bet – $100 original bet = $2,000 profit
Ravens win: $1,667 payout – $1,000 hedge bet – $100 original bet = $567 profit

Pros & Cons of Hedging Bets

Hedging your bets isn’t a magic bullet or formula for guaranteed profits, but when used in the right way, it can definitely have a positive effect on your bankroll. Like any other betting strategy, hedging has its upsides and drawbacks, which we’ve detailed below.

When Should You Hedge Your Bets?

Now that we’ve covered hedging bets meaning, let’s discuss how and when it should be used. When you think of hedging, timing should be at the forefront of your process every time.

Hedges make sense in that middle ground where profit is in sight, but uncertainty starts to spike. Here are some hedging opportunities to consider.

• Futures wagers during deep runs: If your pre-season longshot reaches the conference finals, look to hedge against the favorite to secure gains to offset any disappointment at the climax. Picture World Series odds tightening. If your pick is +500, place your hedging side bet to counter.
• Live twists: Look to the in-play markets during the chaos for hedging windows. If Team 1 builds a lead but fatigue starts to set in, hedge your bets on Team 2, plus points or otherwise, to add a safety net. This exploits movements in Vegas lines and for arbitrage opportunities.
• Protect your parlays: We’ve all been there. Your 7-game multi is on the cusp of glory. Six of your selections have come in and your destiny hangs on one final result. Here, you could hedge the closer to guarantee some sort of return or to help cushion a loss.
• In-game injuries and other variables: If your team’s star quarterback picks up an early injury, it might be time to hedge your bet to cover your bases in the event of a shift in momentum. Similarly, if you’re wagering on NBA betting sites and a clutch player is having a cold night, it might be worth hedging to compensate.

Are There Scenarios Where We Shouldn’t Be Hedging Our Bets?

Hedge betting isn’t always the wisest move and should only be done when the landscape suits. Here are some examples of key times to skip it:

• High-Confidence Locks: If the data and your research scream Team A -3.5 at home, then it makes more sense to ride the original wager to maximize EV (expected value). Hedging bets unnecessarily on Team B dilutes things here, so avoid. Look at our EV betting picks page for extra inspiration here.
• Low-Vig, High-Reward Scenarios: In big-field events (like the Kentucky Derby), it makes little sense to spread thin hedges across 20 entries on horse racing betting sites. This only fragments your bankroll and can lead to a complicated wagering mess.
• Emotional Overreactions: Avoid making impulsive hedging decisions. If your team is down early in a possible comeback game, don’t be too quick to hedge. Live wagering volatility often leads to unfavorable rebounds. Don’t lose sight of the real hedging my bets meaning. Emotional betting can easily lead to a gambling problem.
• Bankroll Strain: If finances in your betting account are tight, doubling down on wagers risks deeper holes. Be sensible and manage your money smartly. Create a workable bankroll management system.

Effective Strategies for Hedging Sports Bets

Now that you know the basics, you can begin to learn more nuanced plays to master hedge betting. Below, we’ve listed a selection of BetIdeas’ best strategies that can help to step your hedges up.

Leverage Odds Boosts for Smarter Hedges

Make use of odds boosts to inflate the hedge payout, turning break-even into +EV (expected value). For example, you could use the enhanced price on Team B’s moneyline bet before hedging your Team A futures wager.

Multi-Outcome Hedging in Big Fields

In events with bigger fields, like horse races or golf majors, hedging a bet is done by sprinkling wagers on 3-4 contenders in a 12-horse field, or 5-6 prospects on a card of 20+ golfers. Then, you can cover multiple outcomes on the best golf betting sites without overextending.

Partial vs Full Hedges in Parlays

You should play around with partial hedging for parlay bets on sports. For instance, you could hedge 50% of your total exposure on the final leg of a big point spread market parlay. Tinker with a hedging calculator to explore different scenarios so you can fine-tune your strategy for hedging bets.

Cross-Sportsbook Hedges

Don’t be afraid to shop lines across sportsbooks and betting apps. It might make sense to bet Team A with one form and hedge Team B on another platform with better odds.

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